NCAA Tournament PrizePicks Predictions: Best March Madness Picks

Six underdogs won outright on the opening day of the 2025 NCAA Tournament, setting the stage for more March Madness chaos on Friday. According to analysis published by BettingPros [1], two matchups stand out as prime upset candidates: No. 13 Hofstra against No. 4 Alabama, and No. 12 Northern Iowa against No. 5 St. John’s. The case for each underdog is built on hard defensive and offensive statistics that make both picks more than just wishful thinking.

Thursday’s Upset Trend and What It Means for Friday

Six Outright Upsets in One Day

The first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday produced six outright underdog victories, plus one additional underdog win against the spread, according to BettingPros [1]. That volume of upsets is a reminder that seedings in March Madness carry far less predictive weight than they do in the regular season. The madness is not a cliche. It is a documented pattern backed by Thursday’s results.

Friday’s slate carries the same potential. BettingPros [1] identifies two specific games where the statistical case for an upset is grounded in measurable team strengths and opponent weaknesses. Both involve double-digit seeds with legitimate defensive or offensive profiles that match up well against their higher-seeded opponents.

PrizePicks allows bettors to engage with these matchups throughout the day, from early afternoon games through late-night tip-offs [1]. With the upset trend already established on Thursday, Friday’s card deserves careful attention rather than automatic deference to the favorites.

Why Underdogs Thrive in Round One

Lower seeds in the NCAA Tournament often carry stylistic advantages that higher seeds have not prepared for specifically. A team ranked No. 1 in defense nationally, for example, presents a tempo and shooting challenge that a No. 5 seed may not have faced consistently during conference play. BettingPros [1] argues this dynamic applies directly to both Friday matchups under review.

The combination of Alabama’s defensive vulnerabilities and Northern Iowa’s defensive dominance creates two separate but equally compelling upset scenarios. Each is a longshot by definition, but each is supported by specific, verifiable statistics rather than narrative alone.

Hofstra vs Alabama: The Case for a No. 13 Seed Upset

Alabama’s Defensive Ranking Is a Major Red Flag

Alabama ranks No. 352 in the country on defense, according to BettingPros [1]. Their strategy is to outscore opponents rather than stop them, and they rank No. 1 nationally in offensive output. That approach works against many opponents, but it creates a structural vulnerability against a team built to control pace and exploit defensive gaps.

The absence of Aden Holloway compounds Alabama’s problems. Holloway was removed from the tournament roster following a drug arrest before the tournament began [1]. Losing a contributor at this stage of the season, with no time to adjust rotations or chemistry, is a meaningful disadvantage heading into a game against a team already capable of an upset.

Alabama’s reliance on offense over defense is the central reason BettingPros [1] identifies this game as an upset waiting to happen. A team that cannot stop opponents and has also lost a key player enters the tournament in a structurally weakened position, regardless of seeding.

What Makes Hofstra a Credible Threat

Hofstra is described by BettingPros [1] as a solid rebounding team that thrives in the paint and can hit shots from the perimeter. That profile directly counters Alabama’s defensive weaknesses. A team that cannot defend and faces an opponent comfortable scoring from multiple areas of the floor is a dangerous combination for the favorite.

Cruz Davis is Hofstra’s primary offensive weapon, averaging 20 points per game [1]. If the game tightens and Hofstra needs a bucket, Davis provides a reliable option. BettingPros [1] describes him as a game-breaker, which is exactly the kind of player a double-digit seed needs when facing a higher-seeded opponent with more overall talent.

The PrizePicks prediction for this game is Hofstra at +5.55 odds [1]. That reflects the longshot nature of the pick while acknowledging the legitimate statistical basis for the upset scenario.

Northern Iowa vs St. John’s: Defense Meets a Media Darling

Northern Iowa’s Defense Is the Best in the Country

Northern Iowa finished the regular season with the No. 1 ranked defense in the nation, allowing just 61.3 points per game, according to BettingPros [1]. Opponents shoot just 40.7 percent from the field against them, which ranks No. 26 nationally. From three-point range, opponents connect at only 28.5 percent, the third-lowest rate in the country [1].

Those are not soft defensive numbers. A team holding opponents to 28.5 percent from three and 40.7 percent overall is genuinely difficult to score against, regardless of the opponent’s offensive talent. BettingPros [1] notes that if Northern Iowa can keep the tempo slow and hit more than seven three-pointers on offense, the upset becomes a realistic possibility.

The Panthers’ defensive identity is built for exactly this kind of tournament game. Slowing the pace, limiting efficient possessions, and forcing a higher-seeded opponent to grind for every basket is a proven upset formula in March Madness.

St. John’s and the Rick Pitino Factor

St. John’s enters the tournament as something of a media favorite, driven largely by the presence of head coach Rick Pitino [1]. BettingPros [1] describes the Red Storm as a team that writers are drawn to because a deep run or a championship under Pitino would represent a compelling story. That narrative attention does not translate directly into wins on the court.

St. John’s has been known to struggle getting their offense started, according to BettingPros [1]. Against a defense ranked No. 1 nationally, that tendency to start slowly becomes a more serious liability. Northern Iowa’s defensive system is specifically designed to make scoring difficult from the opening tip, which could extend any early offensive struggles St. John’s experiences.

The PrizePicks prediction for this game is Northern Iowa at +4.76 odds [1]. BettingPros [1] acknowledges it is absolutely a longshot play, but frames it as a game that could certainly become one of the upsets on Friday’s card.

Comparing the Two Underdog Picks Side by Side

Both picks share a common thread: the underdog holds a specific, measurable advantage that directly counters the favorite’s strengths or exposes their weaknesses. Hofstra exploits Alabama’s inability to defend. Northern Iowa uses elite defense to neutralize St. John’s offensive tendencies [1].

The odds reflect the difficulty of each pick. Hofstra at +5.55 and Northern Iowa at +4.76 are genuine longshots [1]. But Thursday’s six outright upsets demonstrate that longshots land regularly in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The statistical foundation for each pick is stronger than the seeding gap alone would suggest.

For readers who follow sports betting markets closely, these kinds of data-driven underdog analyses are the same type of research that informs fast-payout platforms where speed and accuracy of information both matter.

Key Takeaways

• Six underdogs won outright in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, plus one additional underdog covered against the spread [1].
• Alabama ranks No. 352 in the country on defense and lost Aden Holloway to a drug arrest before the tournament began [1].
• Cruz Davis of Hofstra averages 20 points per game and is identified as a game-breaker for the No. 13 seed [1].
• Northern Iowa finished the regular season with the No. 1 ranked defense nationally, allowing just 61.3 points per game [1].
• Opponents shoot only 28.5 percent from three-point range against Northern Iowa, the third-lowest rate in the country [1].
• BettingPros [1] sets the PrizePicks prediction at Hofstra +5.55 and Northern Iowa +4.76 for Friday’s games.
• St. John’s head coach Rick Pitino is described as a driver of media attention, though the team has known tendencies to struggle offensively early in games [1].

Frequently Asked Questions

The Bottom Line

Thursday’s first round produced six outright underdog victories, and the statistical case for more upsets on Friday is grounded in real data. Alabama’s No. 352 defensive ranking and the loss of Aden Holloway create a genuine opening for Hofstra, while Northern Iowa’s No. 1 ranked defense gives the Panthers a credible path to slowing down a St. John’s team that can struggle offensively [1].

Neither pick is a certainty. BettingPros [1] is explicit that Northern Iowa at +4.76 is absolutely a longshot play. But longshots with statistical foundations are exactly what the first round of the NCAA Tournament consistently rewards, as Thursday’s results made clear. Cruz Davis averaging 20 points per game and Northern Iowa holding opponents to 28.5 percent from three are not soft numbers. They are the kind of edges that turn upsets from surprises into logical outcomes.

Sources

1. [1]: BettingPros – NCAA Tournament Round 1 PrizePicks predictions, underdog analysis, team defensive rankings, player statistics, and odds for Hofstra vs Alabama and Northern Iowa vs St. John’s